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My Stock-picking Record: A Warts And All Retrospective
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My Stock-picking Record: A Warts And All Retrospective

Jan 1 2014, 12:06pm CST | by

As we enter 2014, it is appropriate to review my recent stock-picking record. After a year of excellent success in 2012, I have to admit that my performance in 2013 has been a mixed bag. On the one...

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42 weeks ago

My Stock-picking Record: A Warts And All Retrospective

Jan 1 2014, 12:06pm CST | by

As we enter 2014, it is appropriate to review my recent stock-picking record. After a year of excellent success in 2012, I have to admit that my performance in 2013 has been a mixed bag. On the one hand I had a good spurt with my ten Japanese stock picks of March 2013. When I reviewed them on October 9, they had jumped 15.3 percent – not bad compared to a rise of just 6.6 percent for the S & P 500. My advice then was to take profits on the five best performers, up 25.6 percent on average, and double up on the laggards, to wit KUBTY, KYO, MKTAY, MFG, and NSANY. I remain happy with that advice and I am prepared to give it at least another year to prove its worth. (A key element in my thinking is that the Japanese yen is now greatly undervalued against the U.S. dollar.)

My five picks of January 2, 2013 —  BCS, GSK, MT, RDS.A, and SSREY — have done less well. Although they are up 9.8 percent on average, they have greatly underperformed a  26.4 percent rise in the S & P 500 index. One mitigating factor is that they are all big dividend payers (as are my Japanese picks). Another factor is that I deliberately took an ultra-conservative approach as I believed that U.S. stocks were already a year ago looking frothy. I also chose stocks with heavy non-American exposure as I am pessimistic about the U.S. dollar’s long-term prospects. I am sticking to my guns on both counts but for now waiting for markets to recognize the value of non-dollar earnings  feels like watching paint dry. (Disclosure: I own GSK and MT.)

As for my boldest stock commentary, that was a bearish call on Apple posted on October 10, 2012.  Then 641, AAPL  closed yesterday at 561. This represents an underperformance of nearly 32 percent (the stock has sagged 12 percent at a time when the S & P 500 gained 29 percent). I remain bearish on AAPL because the company has simply given too much technology to Samsung and it is increasingly suffering margin erosion at the hands of Google and even Amazon.

Source: Forbes Business

 
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2

7 weeks ago

Khazanah throws MAS RM6b lifeline

Aug 29 2014 5:01pm CDT | Source: Business Times Singapore

August 30, 2014 1:15 AMKHAZANAH Nasional will inject RM6 billion (SS$2.4 billion) over three years to resuscitate loss-making Malaysia Airlines (MAS) under a recovery plan that includes even an Act of Parliament. Other key moves are migrating its operations, assets and liabilities to a new company (NewCo) and slashing the work ...
Source: Business Times Singapore   Full article at: Business Times Singapore
 

 
Update
1

7 weeks ago

MAS posts loss of RM307m for Q2

Aug 28 2014 5:00pm CDT | Source: Business Times Singapore

August 29, 2014 1:13 AMMALAYSIA Airlines (MAS) registered a loss of RM307 million (S$122 million) for the second quarter to end-June, but warned of worse to come in the second half when the "full financial impact of the double traged ...
Source: Business Times Singapore   Full article at: Business Times Singapore
 

 

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