360° Coverage : 2014 To See Consolidation For Web, Retail

2 Updates
2014 To See Consolidation For Web, Retail
Photo Credit: Forbes Business

2014 To See Consolidation For Web, Retail

Jan 2 2014, 8:37am CST | by

It’s quiet outside as markets reopen on this first work day after the New Year, so I thought I’d start off 2014 with some predictions for the year ahead in the sectors that I cover. Generally...

Filed under: news

 
 
 

34 weeks ago

2014 To See Consolidation For Web, Retail

Jan 2 2014, 8:37am CST | by

It’s quiet outside as markets reopen on this first work day after the New Year, so I thought I’d start off 2014 with some predictions for the year ahead in the sectors that I cover. Generally speaking, I do think the first half of the year will see a continuation of strong momentum that began in late 2013 for many sectors. But that  momentum will slow as we near the mid-year mark, and 2014 could end with a whimper as the Chinese economy continues to slow and Beijing pushes for higher quality growth.

E-commerce: E-commerce has been the biggest Internet story in China over the last 2 years, fueled by explosive growth that has helped sector leader Alibaba become one of China’s most valuable private companies. The big e-commerce story of 2013 will be Alibaba’s blockbuster IPO, which could value the company at $100 billion and is almost certain to take place in Hong Kong. Other big stories will include the likely New York IPO of Jingdong, the second largest player. We could also see one or more major mergers, with players like Dangdang (NYSE: DANG), Gome (HKEx: 493) and perhaps even Jingdong as some of the most likely candidates to form major new tie-ups.

Online search: The new year will see a new trio of dominant players emerge in this hotly contested space, led by traditional leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and up-and-coming rivals Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU). I predict that Qihoo’s market share will top out in the 25-30 percent range following a year of explosive growth in 2013, while Sohu could grab up to 20 percent of the market following the recent tie-up between its Sogou search service with Tencent’s (HKEx: 700) smaller Soso. That should still leave Baidu with about half the market.

Other Internet: 2014 is likely to see some major mid-sized companies close or get purchased, as they struggle to compete with the bigger players. I suspect that online clothing seller Vancl and group buying site LaShou will cease to exist as independent companies by year end. Meantime, many new instant messaging services aiming to challenge Tencent’s WeChat will struggle to find an audience. Most notable among those is Alibaba’s Laiwang, which will post a disappointing year despite aggressive promotion. Elsewhere in social networking services (SNS), Sina’s (Nasdaq: SINA) Weibo microblogging service will finally become profitable and make a well-received IPO in New York during the year.

Smartphones: Trendy smartphone maker Xiaomi will continue its meteoric rise, helped by one or more major new distribution agreements as the company attempts to go global. But stodgier domestic rivals Huawei, ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 00063) and Lenovo (HKEx: 992) could struggle in their global expansion plans, and also see their margins erode sharply as ongoing price wars intensify for control of their home China market, the world’s largest for smartphones.

Retail: Traditional retailers will continue to struggle amid stiff competition, the rising challenge of e-commerce, and overly aggressive expansion over the last few years. Big global names like Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Carrefour (Paris: CA) are likely to accelerate their closure of underperforming stores, and could also slow down their new store openings. Fast food giants like KFC (NYSE: YUM) and McDonalds (NYSE: MCD) are also likely to see similar trends. We could also see one or more mergers among some major local players, with names like sportswear specialist Li Ning (HKEx: 2331) or grocery operators like Lianhua (HKEx: 980) as likely candidates for new combinations.

Cars: Growth for the domestic auto market will start the year strongly in the low double digits, but could dip into the single digits in the second half as cities restrict their issue of new licenses in a bid to ease congestion and clean up polluted air. Domestic players like Geely (HKEx: 175) and Chery could face the biggest difficulty, though big foreign names will also be forced to offer strong incentives to maintain their growth.

Doug Young is a former China company news chief for Reuters who teaches financial journalism at Fudan University in Shanghai. To read more of his commentaries on China tech news, click on www.youngchinabiz.com.

Source: Forbes Business

 
Update
2

3 days ago

Khazanah throws MAS RM6b lifeline

Aug 29 2014 5:01pm CDT | Source: Business Times Singapore

August 30, 2014 1:15 AMKHAZANAH Nasional will inject RM6 billion (SS$2.4 billion) over three years to resuscitate loss-making Malaysia Airlines (MAS) under a recovery plan that includes even an Act of Parliament. Other key moves are migrating its operations, assets and liabilities to a new company (NewCo) and slashing the workforce o ...
Source: Business Times Singapore   Full article at: Business Times Singapore
 

 
Update
1

4 days ago

MAS posts loss of RM307m for Q2

Aug 28 2014 5:00pm CDT | Source: Business Times Singapore

August 29, 2014 1:13 AMMALAYSIA Airlines (MAS) registered a loss of RM307 million (S$122 million) for the second quarter to end-June, but warned of worse to come in the second half when the "full financial impact of ...
Source: Business Times Singapore   Full article at: Business Times Singapore
 

 

Don't miss ...

 

<a href="/latest_stories/all/all/30" rel="author">Forbes</a>
Forbes is among the most trusted resources for the world's business and investment leaders, providing them the uncompromising commentary, concise analysis, relevant tools and real-time reporting they need to succeed at work, profit from investing and have fun with the rewards of winning.

 

blog comments powered by Disqus

Latest stories

OPEC daily basket price closes higher
Vienna, Sep 2 (IANS/WAM) The basket of 12 crude oils of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stood at $100.08 a barrel Monday, compared to $99.99 last Friday, according to the OPEC Secretariat.
 
 
India, Japan working as strategic partners: Modi
Tokyo, Sep 2 (IANS) India and Japan are now working as "special strategic and global" partners, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Tuesday.
 
 
Choose low-carb diet for weight loss, better heart
New York, Sep 2 (IANS) A low-carbohydrate diet is more effective for weight loss and reducing cardio-vascular risk factors than a low-fat diet, according to a new study.
 
 
Cab sharing helps cut cost, curbs CO2 emission
New York, Sep 2 (IANS) Sharing a cab may help reduce total travel time by up to 40 percent, with corresponding reductions in operational costs and carbon dioxide emissions, says a new study.
 
 
 

Latest from the Network

OPEC daily basket price closes higher
Vienna, Sep 2 (IANS/WAM) The basket of 12 crude oils of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stood at $100.08 a barrel Monday, compared to $99.99 last Friday, according to the OPEC Secretariat. The...
Read more on Business Balla
 
11 killed in China landslides
Beijing, Sep 2 (IANS) At least 11 people were killed and 27 others were missing Tuesday after heavy rains caused landslides in China's Chongqing province. According to officials, about 898,000 people in 16 counties in...
Read more on Politics Balla
 
India elect to field against England in 4th ODI
Birmingham, Sep 2 (IANS) India captain Mahendra Singh Dhoni won the toss and elected to bowl against England in the fourth One-Day International (ODI) of the five-match series being played at Edgbaston here Tuesday....
Read more on Sport Balla
 
India, Japan working as strategic partners: Modi
Tokyo, Sep 2 (IANS) India and Japan are now working as "special strategic and global" partners, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Tuesday. "We are now working as special strategic and global partners," Modi told...
Read more on Politics Balla
 
Choose low-carb diet for weight loss, better heart
New York, Sep 2 (IANS) A low-carbohydrate diet is more effective for weight loss and reducing cardio-vascular risk factors than a low-fat diet, according to a new study. To compare the effects, researchers randomly...
Read more on Celebrity Balla
 
Cab sharing helps cut cost, curbs CO2 emission
New York, Sep 2 (IANS) Sharing a cab may help reduce total travel time by up to 40 percent, with corresponding reductions in operational costs and carbon dioxide emissions, says a new study. If passengers had been...
Read more on Apple Balla
 
Belly fat increases high BP risk
Washington, Sep 2 (IANS) People with fat around their abdominal area are at greater risk of developing hypertension (high blood pressure) when compared to those with similar body mass index (BMI) but fat concentrations...
Read more on Celebrity Balla
 
Fung targets home success at PGM Sabah Championship
Sabah (Malaysia), Sep 2 (IANS) Reigning Asian Development Tour (ADT) Order of Merit champion Nicholas Fung hopes to recover from a fever in time to contend for the Professional Golf of Malaysia (PGM) Sabah Championship...
Read more on Sport Balla
 
Watching action movies makes your waistline grow
New York, Sep 2 (IANS) If your kids love to watch Hollywood action movies, better watch out for their junk food consumption. According to a study, viewers who watch action-packed programmes indulge in over-eating. "We...
Read more on Celebrity Balla
 
Pitch Perfect cast feel 'under pressure' with sequel
Ben Platt says the cast of 'Pitch Perfect' are feeling the pressure ahead of the sequel. The actor, who has starred in the popular Broadway production 'The Book of Mormon', acknowledges that the eagerly-awaited sequel...
Read more on Movie Balla