Jan 23 2014, 3:39pm CST | by Forbes
Super Bowl XLVIII is a little more than a week away, with early odds slightly favoring Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos over the Seattle Seahawks. Prognosticators are a bit more certain about who will be the big winner at the Grammys this coming Sunday: Macklemore & Ryan Lewis.
The rapper-producer duo has already earned seven nominations, second only to Jay Z. According to gambling site BetUSA, which offers “exotic” bets on who will win Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Album of the Year and Best New Artist, it would take a massive upset to prevent Macklemore & Ryan Lewis from winning the latter two.
The odds tell the story. In order to earn $100 on a bet for The Heist to win Album of the year, you’d have to wager $150. Contrast that to the other nominees–a $100 bet on Daft Punk’s Random Access Memories would yield $350 in the event of a win. Others are even longer shots, with payouts of $400 (Taylor Swift’s Red), $600 (Kendrick Lamar’s Good Kid M.a.a.D City) and $1200 (Sara Bareilles’ The Blessed Unrest) on a $100 bet in the event of a win.
Same goes for Best New Artist. Oddsmakers are so convinced that Macklemore & Ryan Lewis will win that you’d have to bet $600 to earn $100 if they do. Meanwhile, a $100 bet would yield $600 in the event of a win for Kendrick Lamar, $700 for Kacey Musgraves, $900 for Ed Sheeran and $1000 for James Blake.
Other prognosticators seem to be in agreement. Music recognition app Shazam accurately predicted three of the four main categories last year; in 2014, the company made projections for seven, and believes Macklemore & Ryan Lewis are destined to win the aforementioned two as well as Best Rap Album.
The picture isn’t quite as clear in the other major categories. For Song of the Year, the odds on BetUSA favor Lorde’s “Royals,” while Shazam picked “Just Give Me A Reason” by Pink, featuring Nate Ruess. Same goes for Record of the year, where the betting site gives the edge to “Get Lucky” by Daft Punk and Pharrell Williams; Shazam predicts that Robin Thicke’s “Blurred Lines,” also with Williams, will get the nod.
Of course, odds aren’t everything–just ask Justin Bieber, who was thought to be a shoo-in for Best New Artist three years ago before being upset by Esperanza Spalding. To win $100 on a Bieber victory, you would have had to wager $225; a $100 bet on Spalding would have yielded $2500.
Should the odds accurately predict the winners at both the Grammys and the Super Bowl, Seahawks fans may be out of luck–but at least they’ll be able to take consolation in the victory of another Seattle favorite: Macklemore & Ryan Lewis.
For continued coverage of the Grammys, follow me on Twitter and tune in this Sunday.
Source: Forbes Business
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