Feb 6 2014, 4:31pm CST | by Forbes
China exports are likely to have fallen flat last month thanks to soft external demand and a higher comparison base from a mini-boom in December.
Jian Chang of Nomura Securities in Hong Kong said Wednesday that she expects exports to fall by 0.2% year over year, down from 4.3% growth in December. On a sequential basis, exports will likely register 0.3% monthly growth, a pickup from -1.1% in December. The yearly growth rate is distorted downward by a higher base due to inflated trade reporting last year.
Looking ahead, Change remains cautious on Chinese export growth in 2014 based on growing uncertainties in emerging markets. The weakening PMI new export orders index points to a downbeat external demand outlook as well.
Meanwhile, China’s core inflation should come in at 2.3% in January from 2.5% in December, driven by lower food prices. Inflation is likely to moderate this year providing food prices remain subdued.
And for investors who thought China banks would start lending less, Nomura number crunchers expect new loans to post an usually strong January rebound to nearly 1.1 trillion yuan ($180 billion), similar to last year.
New loans were 483 billion yuan in December, and 1.07 trillion January 2013. China’s big four state controlled banks like the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China extended 430 billion yuan in loans in the first 26 days of January, 10% growth from January 2013. For Nomura, outstanding loan growth is likely to moderate to 13.9% year over year in January compared to December yearly growth of 14.1%.
Source: Forbes Business
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