China Exports Falling Flat; But Lending Soars

Feb 6 2014, 4:31pm CST | by

China Exports Falling Flat; But Lending Soars

China exports are likely to have fallen flat last month thanks to soft external demand and a higher comparison base from a mini-boom in December.

Jian Chang of Nomura Securities in Hong Kong said Wednesday that she expects exports to fall by 0.2% year over year, down from 4.3% growth in December. On a sequential basis, exports will likely register 0.3% monthly growth, a pickup from -1.1% in December. The yearly growth rate is distorted downward by a higher base due to inflated trade reporting last year.

Looking ahead, Change remains cautious on Chinese export growth in 2014 based on growing uncertainties in emerging markets. The weakening PMI new export orders index points to a downbeat external demand outlook as well.

Meanwhile, China’s core inflation should come in at 2.3% in January from 2.5% in December, driven by lower food prices. Inflation is likely to moderate this year providing food prices remain subdued.

And for investors who thought China banks would start lending less, Nomura number crunchers expect new loans to post an usually strong January rebound to nearly 1.1 trillion yuan ($180 billion), similar to  last year.

New loans were 483 billion yuan in December, and 1.07 trillion January 2013.  China’s big four state controlled banks like the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China extended 430 billion yuan in loans in the first 26 days of January,  10% growth from January 2013.  For Nomura, outstanding loan growth is likely to moderate to 13.9% year over year in January compared to December yearly growth of 14.1%. 

Top Global Real Estate Markets For Affluent Chinese

Source: Forbes Business

 
 
 

<a href="/latest_stories/all/all/30" rel="author">Forbes</a>
Forbes is among the most trusted resources for the world's business and investment leaders, providing them the uncompromising commentary, concise analysis, relevant tools and real-time reporting they need to succeed at work, profit from investing and have fun with the rewards of winning.

 

blog comments powered by Disqus

Latest stories

Need for Speed Reboot is Coming This Fall
Need for Speed Reboot is Coming This Fall
EA will release a complete new Need for Speed this fall. The video game giant just released a teaser video and the first Need for Speed Gameplay video will be revealed in June.
 
 
Google Self-Driving Cars to Hit Public Roads this Summer
Google Self-Driving Cars to Hit Public Roads this Summer
Google announced today that Google Car prototype vehicles will leave the test track and hit the familiar roads of Mountain View.
 
 
Google Search Analytics Launched in Web Master Tools
Google Search Analytics Launched in Web Master Tools
Google officially announced the new Search Analytics feature in Webmaster tools.
 
 
T-Mobile Hits Verizon with new 'Never Settle Trial' Campaign
T-Mobile Hits Verizon with new 'Never Settle Trial' Campaign
In case customers don't feel satisfied, T-Mobile will pay for them to shift back to Verizon