360° Coverage : AAII Survey: Netflix And Facebook Overvalued, Optimism Falls To...

2 Updates

AAII Survey: Netflix And Facebook Overvalued, Optimism Falls To 12-Month Low

Apr 17 2014, 3:12pm CDT | by

Optimism among individual investors is now at levels not seen in 12 months, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment, meanwhile, is above average for the 15th consecutive...

Filed under: news

 
 
 

19 weeks ago

AAII Survey: Netflix And Facebook Overvalued, Optimism Falls To 12-Month Low

Apr 17 2014, 3:12pm CDT | by

Optimism among individual investors is now at levels not seen in 12 months, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment, meanwhile, is above average for the 15th consecutive week.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 1.3 percentage points to 27.2%. Optimism was last lower on April 18, 2013. Bullish sentiment is also now below its historical average of 39.0% for the fifth consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 38.5%. This puts neutral sentiment above its historical average of 30.5% for the 15th consecutive week. The last time a similar streak occurred was in 1999.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, edged up 0.1 percentage points to 34.3%. The modest increase puts pessimism at a 10-week high. It also puts bearish sentiment above its historical average of 30.5% on back-to-back weeks for the first time since January 30 and February 6, 2014.

Bullish sentiment is now at an unusually low level, or more than one standard deviation below its historical average. Historically, such readings have been a contrarian signal. Optimism can stay at below-average levels for a period of time, however. It is also important to realize that many AAII members are long-term investors and do not make portfolio decisions solely based on changes in their short-term expectations.

The drop in bullish sentiment comes as downward volatility has returned to the market. The recent decline in stock prices has heightened concerns that a market top has been formed and that valuations may have become too high. Also playing a role is the pace of revenue growth, the slow rate of economic expansion and Washington politics. Keeping some individual investors from being pessimistic is earnings growth, economic expansion, the Federal Reserve’s tapering of bond purchases and low interest rates.

Special Offer: Where should you invest now? Download the new free report  12 Stocks To Buy For 2014  for ideas from top Forbes advisors.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what they think about the decline experienced by highly valued momentum stocks such as Netflix and Facebook since the start of March. About 60% of respondents said these stocks were overvalued and/or that they were not surprised to see the share prices fall. A small number of respondents (5%) thought the declines are a precursor to a further decline in the broad market indexes.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

  • “About time. They were way overpriced for their revenue models and long-term outlooks.”
  • “They were overvalued and are still overvalued!”
  • “They didn’t deserve their valuation and needed to be knocked down.”
  • “I am glad I did not buy into the hype or the noise.”

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

  • Bullish: 27.2%, down 1.3 percentage points
  • Neutral: 38.5%, up 1.1 percentage points
  • Bearish: 34.3%, up 0.1 percentage points

Historical averages:

  • Bullish: 39.0%
  • Neutral: 30.5%
  • Bearish: 30.5%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock prices will rise, remain essentially flat, or fall over the next six months. The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.) The survey and its results are available online.

 
Update
2

3 days ago

Khazanah throws MAS RM6b lifeline

Aug 29 2014 5:01pm CDT | Source: Business Times Singapore

August 30, 2014 1:15 AMKHAZANAH Nasional will inject RM6 billion (SS$2.4 billion) over three years to resuscitate loss-making Malaysia Airlines (MAS) under a recovery plan that includes even an Act of Parliament. Other key moves are migrating its operations, assets and liabilities to a new company (NewCo) and slash ...
Source: Business Times Singapore   Full article at: Business Times Singapore
 

 
Update
1

4 days ago

MAS posts loss of RM307m for Q2

Aug 28 2014 5:00pm CDT | Source: Business Times Singapore

August 29, 2014 1:13 AMMALAYSIA Airlines (MAS) registered a loss of RM307 million (S$122 million) for the second quarter to end-June, but warned of worse to come in the second half when the "full financial impact of the double tragedies of MH ...
Source: Business Times Singapore   Full article at: Business Times Singapore
 

 

Don't miss ...

 

<a href="/latest_stories/all/all/30" rel="author">Forbes</a>
Forbes is among the most trusted resources for the world's business and investment leaders, providing them the uncompromising commentary, concise analysis, relevant tools and real-time reporting they need to succeed at work, profit from investing and have fun with the rewards of winning.

 

blog comments powered by Disqus

Latest stories

US doctor tests positive for Ebola in Liberia
Washington, Sep 3 (IANS) An American missionary doctor working in Liberia has tested positive for the Ebola virus, his organisation SIM USA announced Tuesday.
 
 
IS video shows beheading of second US journalist
Washington, Sep 2 (IANS) Days after the beheading of American photojournalist James Foley, Sunni militant group Islamic State (IS) has posted a video showing the beheading of another kidnapped American journalist Steven Sotloff, CNN reported.
 
 
IS beheads second US journalist
Washington, Sep 2 (IANS) The Islamic State militant organisation has posted a video titled "A second message to America", showing the beheading of American journalist Steven Sotloff, CNN reported.
 
 
India offers red carpet, not red tape, Modi hard sells India (Roundup)
Tokyo, Sep 2 (IANS) Prime Minister Narendra Modi Tuesday hard sold India to Japanese investors saying that his country offers only a red carpet and not red tape while dubbing his five-day trip to Japan that ends Wednesday as "very successful".
 
 
 

Latest from the Network

US doctor tests positive for Ebola in Liberia
Washington, Sep 3 (IANS) An American missionary doctor working in Liberia has tested positive for the Ebola virus, his organisation SIM USA announced Tuesday. The doctor was treating obstetrics patients at ELWA...
Read more on Business Balla
 
Anastacia slams Kim, Kanye
Los Angeles, Sep 3 (IANS) Singer Anastacia slams reality TV star Kim Kardashian and her husband Kanye West saying their need for attention is just so ill placed. The 45-year-old hit out at the star couple for having...
Read more on Celebrity Balla
 
EU to decide on new sanctions on Russia
Brussels, Sep 3 (IANS) The incoming European Union (EU) foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini Tuesday said the EU leaders will decide on new sanctions on Russia by Friday. "The package (of further sanctions) will be...
Read more on Politics Balla
 
Israel 'stands by' new land appropriation in West Bank
Jerusalem, Sep 3 (IANS) Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman Tuesday said his country "stands by its decision" to appropriate 1,000 acre land in the West Bank. "Gush Etzion settlement bloc reflects a wide...
Read more on Politics Balla
 
Jolie's wedding dress featured her kids' drawings
Los Angeles, Sep 3 (IANS) Actress Angelina Jolie walked down the aisle in a wedding gown with various coloured illustrations drawn by her children. She married actor Brad Pitt Aug 23 in France and on her wedding day,...
Read more on Celebrity Balla
 
UN chief welcomes lifting of Iraqi town siege
United Nations, Sep 3 (IANS) UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon Tuesday welcomed the end of militant siege on the northern Iraqi town of Amerli, saying it averted "a major humanitarian disaster". Ban welcomed the...
Read more on Politics Balla
 
Second beheading plunges Obama into top crisis
Washington, Sep 3 (IANS) Just two weeks after beheading American photojournalist James Foley, the Islamic State (IS) Sunni extremist organisation sent what it called "A second message to America", with a video showing...
Read more on Politics Balla
 
11 killed in Pakistan building collapse
Islamabad, Sep 2 (IANS) At least 11 people, including women and children, were killed Tuesday when a roof of an old building collapsed in Pakistan, a media report said. As many as 18 people were wounded when a two-...
Read more on Politics Balla
 
Imran refuses to budge as parliament supports Pakistan PM (Roundup)
Islamabad, Sep 2 (IANS) Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chairman Imran Khan refused to budge on his demand for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's resignation Tuesday as a joint session of parliament came out overwhelmingly...
Read more on Politics Balla
 
IS video shows beheading of second US journalist
Washington, Sep 2 (IANS) Days after the beheading of American photojournalist James Foley, Sunni militant group Islamic State (IS) has posted a video showing the beheading of another kidnapped American journalist...
Read more on Ad Balla