10 Updates

Annexing Eastern Ukraine Won't Do Anything To Solve Russia's Demographic Problems

Apr 26 2014, 9:17am CDT | by

I’ve heard numerous analysts say that Putin’s aggressive policies to “defend” the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine are ultimately designed to help offset the country’s perilous demographic...

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13 weeks ago

Annexing Eastern Ukraine Won't Do Anything To Solve Russia's Demographic Problems

Apr 26 2014, 9:17am CDT | by

I’ve heard numerous analysts say that Putin’s aggressive policies to “defend” the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine are ultimately designed to help offset the country’s perilous demographic situation: by bringing more Russians into the fold, the thinking goes, Putin will help extend Russia’s status as a major power for just a little bit longer. Here, for example, are the editors of National Review :

Russia’s population is declining fast because, among other reasons, its life expectancy the past few decades fell, which itself can be traced to rampant alcoholism… Putin’s strategy is one of reconquering former Russian and/or Soviet possessions, bringing in ethnic Russians to offset the demographic decline, establishing a Eurasian Economic Union to bolster Russia’s economy, and, where his expansionary plans meet an obstacle, stirring up ethnic divisions to destabilize neighboring target states.

I feel pretty confident in saying that whatever is motivating Putin to stir up trouble in Ukraine’s eastern oblasts it is absolutely not a desire to “offset demographic decline.” Why am I so confident in saying this? Because the industrial belt of Eastern Ukraine might very well be the most demographically unstable area on the planet. The three oblasts in which “pro-Russian separatists” have been most active, Donestk, Lugansk, and Kharkov, are depopulating at more than twice the rate of the Russian Federation. Here is what has happened to their natural change in population over the past decade

It is true that there are certain small areas of the Russia that are depopulating at a comparable rate (Pskov and Tambov oblasts for example) but Eastern Ukraine as a whole is much worse off demographically than any economically or politically significant parts of the Russian Federation.

None of these statistics are a secret. If I can easily hop over to the Ukrainian statistics service’s website and pull down oblast-level data on population change, you can bet that the FSB possesses the same capability. Putin might, as Angela Merkel said, “be in another world,” but he obviously possesses the math skills of an elementary school student and can grasp that bringing rapidly depopulating areas into Russia won’t do anything to help address Russia’s depopulation. The Russians might be reading from a new and more aggressive script, but they haven’t totally departed from reality.

Is it possible that the Russians still take over parts of Eastern Ukraine? Unfortunately yes: almost anything seems possible these days. But if the Russians do annex parts of Ukraine it will primarily because of political and military considerations and not because of any concerns about demography. That is to say that Eastern Ukraine is much less demographically stable than Russia itself, and that we should keep this in mind the next time someone mentions Putin’s need to replenish his stock of ethnic Russians.

Follow me on Twitter @MarkAdomanis or on Facebook 

 
Update
10

7 weeks ago

RM47mil KWSG contributions still unclaimed

Jun 9 2014 7:54am CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR: About RM47 million of contributions in the Teachers Provident Fund (KWSG) still remain unclaimed, the De ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
9

7 weeks ago

Gold shop lost almost RM1mil

Jun 9 2014 3:50am CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

KANGAR: A gold shop owner lost almost RM1 million after after the safe on in his shop was broken into by rob ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
8

7 weeks ago

Motion to debate MAS losses in Dewan Rakyat rejected

Jun 9 2014 3:39am CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR: AN emergency motion to debate the losses incurred by Malaysia Airlines last year, amounting to RM1.2 billion was rejected by ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
7

7 weeks ago

MH370 Tragedy: Hisham: RM27.6 mil spent on 1st phase of SAR

Jun 9 2014 2:11am CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia spent some RM27.6 million in its first phase of the search operations for missing Malaysia Airline flight MH370, said Acting Transport Minister, Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein. ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
6

7 weeks ago

9.1m litres of diesel seized in a month

Jun 8 2014 1:11am CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

PUTRAJAYA: The Domestic Trade, Cooperatives, and Consumerism ministry has seized some 9.1 million litres of diesel and property worth RM58 million since mounting ‘Operasi Diesel Selatan’ in the southern states las ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
5

7 weeks ago

Girl, 9, awarded RM2.78m compensation for medical negligence

Jun 6 2014 4:56am CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR: A nine-year-old girl who suffered brain damage during her birth at a government hospital was awarded over RM2.78 million in compe ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
4

7 weeks ago

Malaysia's total trade in April up 12pc

Jun 5 2014 11:52pm CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's total trade in April 2014 rose by 12 per cent from a year ago to RM123.86 billion due to growing trading activities, International Trade and Industry Minister Dat ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
3

7 weeks ago

Works Ministry to spend RM20m for upgrading works at 50 accident black spots

Jun 4 2014 11:35pm CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

JOHOR BARU: The Works Ministry will implement upgrading works at 50 accident prone locations in the country that have been identified this year involving an allocation of RM20 million. ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
2

7 weeks ago

Najib launches loan scheme for Ramadan traders

Jun 4 2014 10:24pm CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

PUTRAJAYA: Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak today launches RM45 million Ramadan Bazaar Scheme 2014. ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
1

7 weeks ago

Residents bring up objection against Kidex to Suhakam

Jun 4 2014 4:49am CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

PETALING JAYA: A group of 20 Petaling Jaya residents held a meeting with the Human Rights Commission of Malaysia (Suhakam) over their objection against the proposed RM2.2 billion Kinrara Damansara Skyw ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 

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