360° Coverage : Wall Street Says It's Different This Time

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Wall Street Says It's Different This Time

May 16 2014, 4:02pm CDT | by

It’s a good thing it’s different this time! We know it is because Wall Street says so. The high-valuation levels indicated by the Shiller CAPE 10 Price/Earnings Ratio mean nothing this time, because...

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10 weeks ago

Wall Street Says It's Different This Time

May 16 2014, 4:02pm CDT | by

It’s a good thing it’s different this time! We know it is because Wall Street says so.

The high-valuation levels indicated by the Shiller CAPE 10 Price/Earnings Ratio mean nothing this time, because things are different than when that indicator’s similar readings in previous periods were accompanied by market tops.

The age of this bull market also means nothing because it’s different this time, since we have the Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen Put in place, That promise is that the Fed is neither ahead of nor behind the curve, as it was so often in the past. This time the Fed is on top of what is going on, and knows what it must do to prevent economic slowdowns or market corrections from worsening into recessions and bear markets.

It sure worked in the summer slowdowns in 1998, 2011, and 2012. Well okay, not so much in the summer of 2010 when the S&P 500 plunged 19%. And not so much in preventing the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 meltdowns. But 2010, 2008? That’s ancient history.

We also know the stock market cannot be timed. We know that also because Wall Street says so. We know that it cannot even warn when risk is high with enough accuracy to require cutting back exposure. Just buy any time and all the time, and let time take care of it.

Therefore, we need not be concerned about those high valuation levels, nor that we are in the second year of the Four-Year Presidential Cycle, and since 1934 the average decline in the 2nd year was 21%.

How about that silly stuff about Sell in May and Go Away outperforming the market over the long-term? It supposedly does so by avoiding the large losses often associated with the summer months? You only have to look back and see it didn’t work last year, or in 2012. It hasn’t worked since 2011. Besides, don’t look back. Look at what’s going on now. The Dow and S&P 500 just made new record highs a few days ago.

They pulled back some over the last few days, but not even enough to retest the potential support at their 50-day moving averages.

Sure, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are already in correction territory (down 10%)? So what? That’s meaningless, just a reflection of how speculative stocks got ahead of themselves and needed to cool off a bit before getting back in harness to the upside.

Corporate insiders are selling at a near record pace? Corporations themselves are dumping IPO’s on the market, selling stock to enthusiastic investors at a frenzied pace? So-called ‘smart money’ big-names are issuing warnings of a serious correction, even a bear market?

Okay, so they were right with their selling and warnings in 1999, and in 2006 when the housing bubble was building, and in 2007. And investors who didn’t pay attention to the warnings were smashed down when those bubbles burst. And the wealth inequality between the top 5% and the rest of the country kept getting worse.

Well listen to this. Corporate insiders were selling heavily last spring, and those top 5% ‘smart money’ guys, hedge funds and the like, warned early last year that a big correction was coming last summer. And it didn’t.

So why be concerned. Wall Street says it’s different this time, and the stock market can’t be timed anyway.

Okay, I get all that. See and hear it every day.

So I must be a dinosaur in my thinking that conditions at previous tops, valuation levels, warnings from ‘smart money’, seasonality, etc., going back at least 100 years, have always had relevance when similar conditions appeared in later periods. Not with enough accuracy to provide buy or sell signals, but certainly with enough to warn of unusual risk.

And they are doing so now.

My advice is that investors pay attention./>/>

Sy is president of StreetSmartReport.com and editor of the free market blog Street Smart Post. Follow him on twitter @streetsmartpost. He was the Timer Digest #1 Gold Timer for 2012 (Gold Timer of the Year), as well as the #2 Long-Term Stock Market Timer.

 
Update
10

7 weeks ago

RM47mil KWSG contributions still unclaimed

Jun 9 2014 7:54am CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR: About RM47 million of contributions in the Teachers Provident Fund (KWSG) still remain unclaimed, the Dewan Rakyat ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
9

7 weeks ago

Gold shop lost almost RM1mil

Jun 9 2014 3:50am CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

KANGAR: A gold shop owner lost almost RM1 million after after the safe on in his shop was broken ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
8

7 weeks ago

Motion to debate MAS losses in Dewan Rakyat rejected

Jun 9 2014 3:39am CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR: AN emergency motion to debate the losses incurred by Malaysia Airlines last year, amounting to RM1.2 billion was rejected by the ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
7

7 weeks ago

MH370 Tragedy: Hisham: RM27.6 mil spent on 1st phase of SAR

Jun 9 2014 2:11am CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia spent some RM27.6 million in its first phase of the search operations for missing Malaysia Airline flight MH370, said Acting Transport Minister, Datuk Seri Hishammuddi ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
6

7 weeks ago

9.1m litres of diesel seized in a month

Jun 8 2014 1:11am CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

PUTRAJAYA: The Domestic Trade, Cooperatives, and Consumerism ministry has seized some 9.1 million litres of diesel and property worth RM58 million since mounting ‘Operasi Diesel Selatan’ in the southern s ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
5

7 weeks ago

Girl, 9, awarded RM2.78m compensation for medical negligence

Jun 6 2014 4:56am CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR: A nine-year-old girl who suffered brain damage during her birth at a government hospital was awarded over RM2. ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
4

7 weeks ago

Malaysia's total trade in April up 12pc

Jun 5 2014 11:52pm CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's total trade in April 2014 rose by 12 per cent from a year ago to RM123.86 billion due to growing trading activities, International Trade and Industry M ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
3

8 weeks ago

Works Ministry to spend RM20m for upgrading works at 50 accident black spots

Jun 4 2014 11:35pm CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

JOHOR BARU: The Works Ministry will implement upgrading works at 50 accident prone locations in the country that have been identified this year invo ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
2

8 weeks ago

Najib launches loan scheme for Ramadan traders

Jun 4 2014 10:24pm CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

PUTRAJAYA: Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak today launches RM45 million Ramadan Bazaar Scheme 2 ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 
Update
1

8 weeks ago

Residents bring up objection against Kidex to Suhakam

Jun 4 2014 4:49am CDT | Source: Business Times Malaysia

PETALING JAYA: A group of 20 Petaling Jaya residents held a meeting with the Human Rights Commission of Malaysia (Suhakam) over their objection against the proposed RM2.2 billion Kinrara Da ...
Source: Business Times Malaysia   Full article at: Business Times Malaysia
 

 

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